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After five years of severe imbalances, global economies are converging on a reasonable state of equilibrium—but in an environment of increased uncertainty. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares Bridgewater’s recent research where we translate these macroeconomic pressures into how we’d allocate capital in 2025.

The continued outperformance of US equities—and especially the exceptional performance of the Mag 7—is raising questions among investors as to whether the rally has run its course. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares some of Bridgewater’s recent research exploring these questions.

As we step into 2025, where can investors find opportunities in equity markets? Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares her thoughts on what’s priced into global stocks—including the impact of AI and tariffs.

The single most painful thing that can happen to most investors is an equity drawdown. Finding investments that can do well when equities don’t perform is “the holy grail” for most portfolios. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares research on where investors can find this type of diversification as we enter an increasingly uncertain world.

Bridgewater’s Natalie Rodden (right) and Sage Baron (left) were selected as 2024 participants in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) Abshire-Inamori Leadership Academy (AILA) International Fellowship. This week-long leadership intensive provides training opportunities in leadership, ethics, and foreign policy; fosters growth and collaboration amongst a diverse selection of individuals; and empowers participants to make positive contributions to their communities.

In this edited version of our Q1 CIO call, Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour describes how we are processing today’s radically different economic and market environment.

One of the biggest shifts we’re tracking is the move to a new system for how economies and commerce will be managed. The previous global consensus around free trade and limited government intervention is hanging by a thread, and a different system—something we call “modern mercantilism." Co-CIO Greg Jensen shares his view of what’s happening and why it matters for investors.

As you know, one of the major issues I am focused on as CIO is how America’s shift toward modern mercantilism will affect the global economic order. As the events of the past few weeks indicate, it is sinking in for US trading partners and traditional allies that they will not be able to rely on the US as a consistent partner. Germany pushing through a major defense and infrastructure bill is indicative of where we’re going— with each major US partner finding a new way to live in a new world order.

In partnership with Global Citizen, Bridgewater is launching Forecasting the Future: A Modern Economics Challenge—an opportunity to tackle the forces reshaping the global economy and be part of creating the understanding that will help navigate this new world. Showcase your forecasting skills, explore potential career opportunities at Bridgewater—the top five forecasters will each receive $25K. Applications open May 20, 2025.

As a key part of understanding what is to come, we are working through how to model the effects of modern-day mercantilism. In this report, we share some thoughts on that endeavor.