Research & Insights
MP3 policies were very successful in stimulating a rapid recovery from the pandemic. But this stimulation was applied for too long, resulting in persistent inflation and the need for central banks to slow the economy through aggressive tightening. Explore our research on the current challenges this new environment presents for investors.
Because environmental, social, and governance considerations affect how economies are evolving and how markets are priced, we seek a deep understanding of the ESG issues that are pertinent to our investment approach. We also partner with institutional investors seeking to achieve financial outcomes and have environmental and social impacts within large, liquid, multi-asset portfolios.
Bridgewater is focused on understanding the historical cause-effect relationships of complex economic situations. As we look back at the events of 2008, we invite you to explore some of the crisis-era research and decision making that enabled our investment team to understand what drove the market and helped us weather the greatest financial storm of a generation.
Over twenty years ago Bridgewater Associates pioneered portfolio balancing concepts that came to fruition with the creation of the All Weather asset allocation strategy in 1996. Read more about the concept of balance that lies behind the Risk Parity approach.
The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine, yet it is not well understood. Below we explain timeless insights of how it works and share long term perspectives that illustrate these forces playing out.
Our Research Process
Throughout our history, Bridgewater has focused on building the best possible understanding of global economies and markets. These unique insights drive our innovative investment engine, deliver returns for our clients, and inform global economic policy.
On a mission to uncover timeless and universal investment principles, our unique meritocratic culture and cutting-edge technology allow us to systematize and compound our insights over time so that our collective understanding is greater than that of any individual.
As a global macro-investment manager, we take a diversified approach spanning more than 150 different markets. With deep expertise in portfolio construction and risk management, we develop insights and design strategies to deliver value to our clients through any economic environment.
Selected Insights from Our Research Library
November 30, 2023
What happens when cognitive tasks can be done at zero marginal costs? Co-CIO Greg Jensen explores some of the potential impacts that advancements of AI/ML technology could have on companies and the economy, including an extreme scenario that could potentially produce “explosive growth.”
November 8, 2023
The forces that have cushioned the impact of the tightening so far are unsustainable. As past supports fade and rates stay high, we expect balance sheets to deteriorate and growth to gradually grind down. Co-CIO Greg Jensen explains how we expect this dynamic to be the dominant driver of economies and markets over the next 12-18 months.
October 27, 2023
The economy is now only moderately out of balance, with lagged effects from prior tightening likely ahead. Co-CIO Bob Prince explains that what is more out of balance is the pricing of markets in relation to these conditions.
October 19, 2023
In an excerpt from our Q3 CIO call, Greg discusses where we are in the cycle and the implications for investors.
September 30, 2023
Higher rates for longer will drag bond yields higher and produce a grinding pressure on growth. A rise in yields and low growth will further compress equity yields relative to bonds.
October 2, 2023
The impacts of AI on the economy will depend both on how the technology evolves and how quickly and effectively it is implemented. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares how we are interpreting the growing literature on the topic and tracking the process in real time.
September 20, 2023
Bridgewater co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour joins “Bloomberg Wealth with David Rubenstein” for a wide-ranging discussion on Bridgewater’s current leadership and culture, her career journey, and our outlook on markets and economies.
September 8, 2023
In this two-part series, founder and CIO mentor Ray Dalio uses his five big forces framework to discuss what the great transfer of debt from the private sector to the public sector means for investors, the growing threats to the domestic political order, the US-China conflict, China’s economic challenges, and why China hasn’t yet engineered a beautiful deleveraging.
August 31, 2023
Macro Team Co-Head Jason Rotenberg is joined by shipping researchers J Mintzmyer and James Catlin of Value Investor’s Edge to discuss the state of global shipping and how it connects to inflation, commodity markets, geopolitical risk, China’s recovery, and other key macro issues.
September 6, 2023
One way to understand how the cycle is playing out is by breaking down the spending in the economy into its sources: incomes, borrowing, and changes in saving. Private sector borrowing has been crushed by the tightening and households have stopped reducing their savings, but strong income growth has outweighed these drags and will likely take more than just the tightening to date to crack.
August 16, 2023
When we look across the metrics we’re tracking to know if the tightening has been sufficient, we see the Fed has made notable progress toward its goals. However, we still don’t see the conditions that would warrant the easing markets are currently discounting.
August 4, 2023
Co-CIO Greg Jensen explains how changes to the composition of US debt issuance have temporarily averted some of the most important consequences of the tightening, and why this support to assets is likely to turn into a drag.
June 30, 2023
Greg joins Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast to discuss the opportunities and risks of artificial intelligence, how we’re using AI at Bridgewater, and the potential impacts of AI on the economy and investing. He also describes how the tightening has played out, what we missed, and our outlook going forward.
June 9, 2023
Despite a year’s worth of monetary tightening, most major economies remain in disequilibrium. Co-CIO Bob Prince explains how this is not unusual, as restoring equilibrium often takes a series of moves over time. The implications for policy and markets remain material.
May 9, 2023
Karen joins the 2023 Sohn Investment Conference to discuss the major shifts — both near-term and long-term — that are likely to have a significant impact on economies and markets.
May 1, 2023
Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour joins a panel of industry leaders at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference to discuss a wide range of topics impacting global capital markets and investors. Karen focuses on current credit conditions, the asymmetry she’s seeing in the markets, the paradigm shift from a low inflation world, China as a diversifier, and more.
April 3, 2023
Differences in macro conditions and the corresponding policy responses and market action are as large as they have been in 40 years. Co-CIO Bob Prince highlights the importance and potential of geographic diversification for investors.
March 24, 2023
Co-CIO Greg and Co-Head of Fixed Income Research Alex Schiller discuss our recent three-part series on the banking crisis and its implications for the financial system, the economy, markets, and the Fed.
February 21, 2023
Our newest co-CIO shares her thoughts on the secular changes shaping economies and markets, how she’s assessing cyclical conditions around the world, and what these dynamics mean for investors.
February 14, 2023
Odds favor a third stage of this tightening cycle likely to be marked either by an economic downturn or failure to meet the inflation target, prompting more tightening. Either would be bad for most portfolios.
January 24, 2023
Even with the tailwind of falling energy prices, Europe’s inflation problem looks persistent, which is bad news for European assets.
January 17, 2023
Co-CIO Bob Prince joined Bloomberg TV from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss his thoughts on the economy in 2023, why a downturn is needed for inflation to fall back to target, and why we are likely entering a more volatile “boom-bust” style environment than the last decade of relatively stable conditions.
December 13, 2022
Bridgewater’s Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour describes why today’s environment is so different from what we’ve seen in recent decades and how investors can prepare their portfolios.
November 30, 2022
The publicly traded firms in a handful of emissions-intensive sectors are responsible for about 60% of all global emissions. By allocating capital to climate solutions and carbon improvers in these sectors, investors can make progress toward their net zero goals, even if that leads to higher spot portfolio emissions than if they were to cut these emissions-intensive sectors altogether.
November 17, 2022
Bob shares his views with Milken Institute on today’s self-reinforcing inflation, what needs to happen to bring inflation down, and the likelihood of a coming recession. He also touches on the US relationship with China and the potential ramifications for the economy and capital flows going forward.
October 27, 2022
Greenhouse gas emissions are highly concentrated in a few key sectors in investor portfolios; the publicly traded firms in these sectors alone are responsible for about 60% of all global emissions. Investors thinking through climate risks, climate opportunities, and net zero alignment should focus on these sectors.
Featured Research
We are constantly monitoring present day events and drawing lessons from history to shape and refine our understanding for how markets and economies work. Explore a collection of our research on topics ranging from debt crises to sustainable investing.
