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One way to understand how the cycle is playing out is by breaking down the spending in the economy into its sources: incomes, borrowing, and changes in saving. Private sector borrowing has been crushed by the tightening and households have stopped reducing their savings, but strong income growth has outweighed these drags and will likely take more than just the tightening to date to crack.

In this two-part series, founder and CIO mentor Ray Dalio uses his five big forces framework to discuss what the great transfer of debt from the private sector to the public sector means for investors, the growing threats to the domestic political order, the US-China conflict, China’s economic challenges, and why China hasn’t yet engineered a beautiful deleveraging.

Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary, Tracey Brady Yurko, has been named to INvolve’s 2023 “Top 100 Women Executives" list, recognizing her accomplishments in advancing women in business and championing gender diversity in the workplace.

Higher rates for longer will drag bond yields higher and produce a grinding pressure on growth. A rise in yields and low growth will further compress equity yields relative to bonds.

The economy is now only moderately out of balance, with lagged effects from prior tightening likely ahead. Co-CIO Bob Prince explains that what is more out of balance is the pricing of markets in relation to these conditions.

Read our response to a recent book that paints a distorted and inaccurate picture of our firm and community.

CEO Nir Bar Dea sent this email to Bridgewater’s employees on November 7, 2023.

Bridgewater’s Head of AI & Machine Learning Investment Strategy is recognized alongside other rising stars in the industry.

What happens when cognitive tasks can be done at zero marginal costs? Co-CIO Greg Jensen explores some of the potential impacts that advancements of AI/ML technology could have on companies and the economy, including an extreme scenario that could potentially produce “explosive growth.”

The impacts of AI on the economy will depend both on how the technology evolves and how quickly and effectively it is implemented. Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour shares how we are interpreting the growing literature on the topic and tracking the process in real time.