Throughout our history, Bridgewater has focused on building the best possible understanding of global economies and markets. These unique insights drive our innovative investment management, inform global economic policy, and deliver returns for our clients. Here is a collection of our best thinking and insights so you can learn more.
Daily Observations is Bridgewater's flagship research publication. For over 40 years, it has grown to become a daily must-read analysis for thousands of investors and policy makers around the world. Here are a few examples of our research.
Geographic Diversification Can Be a Lifesaver, Yet Most Portfolios Are Highly Geographically ConcentratedDaily Observations | February 2019
Bridgewater’s Melissa Saphier, Karen Karniol-Tambour, and Pat Margolis explore how portfolios with geographic diversification can help investors create a more consistent return stream by remaining resilient to the range of ways the world could unfold.Learn More
The Coronavirus’s $4 Trillion Hit to US Corporations
Daily Observations | March, 19 2020
The coronavirus has created a historic decline in cash flows across the globe. We estimate US corporate revenue across public and private businesses will decline by roughly $4 trillion. Explore our measure of the losses and thoughts on how the hole can be mitigated.
How We Are Thinking about The Coronavirus and its Impact on Markets
Daily Observations | February 3, 2020
The Coronavirus looks increasingly like it will be the most significant medical disruption in recent history. In this research paper by former White House official and Bridgewater Chief Security Officer Richard Falkenrath, we walk through how we are processing the virus’s impact on global economies and markets.
"The End of the Boom-Bust Cycle as We Know it," Explained
Daily Observations | January 29, 2020
In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Bridgewater Co-CIO Bob Prince led off the discussion with a statement that “we’ve probably seen the end of the boom-bust cycle as we know it.” Explore a deeper understanding of that statement.
Social Outcomes Have Diverged from Traditional Economic Measures
Daily Observations | November 26, 2019
In recent years, social outcomes have increasingly diverged from traditional macroeconomic measures of how economies are performing. Explore how different economies are performing along measures such as inequality, education and health, and the implications of those outcomes for policy.
As Economies Lose Potential Energy, Investment Considerations
Daily Observations | October 28, 2019
The laws of physics give us the concepts of potential energy and kinetic energy. For example, when a ball is held high above the ground, it has a lot of potential energy; when the ball is released and in motion, this turns into kinetic energy; and when the ball is on the ground at rest, it has neither. Economies have analogous dynamics. Explore how developed economies now have limited potential energy left to draw on and how to approach investing in such a world
Peak Profit Margins? A Global Perspective
Daily Observations | March 2019
Many of the forces that fueled the secular rise in US profit margins have buoyed company profits across the developed world, while Chinese companies saw profit margins shrink. Explore how these drivers have affected global margins and how equity valuations could change in the future.
Peak Profit Margins? A US Perspective
Daily Observations | February 2019
Almost every major driver of US corporate profit margins has improved in the last two decades, boosting equity returns. Explore these driving forces of the past and how sustainable they are going forward.
Chinese-American Misunderstandings, Disputes, and Wars
Daily Observations | June 2018
In these Observations, Ray Dalio shares his thoughts on the evolving trade dispute between China and the US, and the fundamental differences in values and approaches that lie beneath the conflict.
A Top-Down Look at the Chinese Equity Market
Daily Observations | April 2018
Within a decade or so there is a high likelihood that the Chinese equity market will be on par with the US and European equity markets in terms of its size and importance to global investors. With this in mind, a top-down view of the Chinese equity market in relation to the US and Europe shows similarities in their fundamental drivers and important differences in how things are playing out.
Inclusion of China in Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Bond Index Boosts Pressure on Investors to Figure Out How They Will Deal with the Opening of Chinese Markets
Daily Observations | March 2018
Most global investors have very small allocations to China that do not appropriately reflect the size and importance of the Chinese economy or its assets. We expect that will change significantly over the next few years, and we would encourage investors to think proactively about the exposure they want to China now.
It’s All Classic: the Main Questions are About the Exact Timing and What the Next Downturn Will be Like
Daily Observations | February 2018
In these Observations, we put what’s been happening in markets recently within the context of the classic short-term debt/business cycle.
How the World Is Changing: The Secular Picture
Daily Observations | January 2018
As we begin a new year, we wanted to step back and take stock of how unusually fast the global economy has changed over the past 15 years or so. Where growth is occurring and where wealth is held have moved so radically that relying on past market experiences to determine what is important to the global economy is particularly dangerous.
Our Biggest Economic, Social and Political Issue; The Two Economies: The Top 40% and the Bottom 60%
Daily Observations | October 2017
Today, wealth and income skews are so great that average statistics no longer reflect the conditions of the majority of Americans. To give you a sense of what the picture below the averages looks like, we broke the economy into two economies—that of the top 40% and that of the bottom 60%.
The Macro Implications of the Push Toward Electric Vehicles
Daily Observations | August 2017
The global push toward electric vehicles illustrates how technology can radically reshape entrenched industries (sectoral winners and losers), geopolitics (regional winners and losers), productivity, economic growth, and of course demand for extractive commodities (particularly oil). Today’s Observations looks at the implications for growth and oil demand.
Understanding the High Returns in a Low Return Environment
Daily Observations | March 2017
Since the global financial crisis, most global asset portfolios have performed extremely well, and we are worried that this performance is creating complacency about future returns. While backward-looking returns of a traditional portfolio are near all-time highs, forward-looking expected returns are near all-time lows.
The Opening of Chinese Credit Markets Means That Foreign Investors Can Build a Balanced Portfolio in China; This Will Be a Big Deal
Daily Observations | September 2017
China is in the process of opening up and restructuring its capital markets, and its markets are on pace to become some of the most important liquid, publicly traded markets in the world. As the credit markets open up alongside the equity markets, there is a greater ability for investors to create balanced portfolios of Chinese assets.
Populism: The Phenomenon
Daily Observations | March 2017
This report is an examination of populism, the phenomenon—how it typically germinates, grows, and runs its course.
Three Questions That Every Fund Should Ask Themselves
Daily Observations | July 2015
Stepping back from the market action, we want to pause for a moment and share some thoughts about longer-term investment strategy that have been part of our recent client conversations.
A Modern Day D-process: A Less Traumatic Result Will Result From Increased Dosages of Money
Daily Observations | April 2009
For the first time in history central banks (most importantly the Fed) are producing enough money to make up for contracting credit as an antidote to the D-process.
The Biggest Mistake in Investing
Daily Observations | April 2004
We generally use this communication to comment on the economies and markets, but today wanted to make a brief comment on investing.