Our Views on China
Video: Ray Dalio Discusses the Impact of China’s Growth on the World Economy
Bridgewater has been visiting and studying the evolution of China’s economy and financial markets for more than 30 years. Over that time, decades of reform in China have resulted in one of the greatest economic transformations of our lifetimes. Looking forward, China is poised to continue growing as a driver of global economic and financial activity and presents a rare opportunity for global investors to access a large, liquid, and highly diversifying market.
Consistent with this reality, we have spent the past several years expanding our already deep engagement with China, including increasing our presence on the ground (we operate offices in Beijing and Shanghai), increasing our holdings of Chinese assets in our global All Weather strategy, launching a new strategic allocation to Chinese markets (All Weather China) in 2018, and proactively sharing our thoughts with our community on the Chinese economy and markets through our research.
Below we offer a handful of timely perspectives on China that have grown out of this engagement. They include our thoughts on current and future Chinese economic conditions, our framework for constructing an allocation to China, and details on the implications of ongoing geopolitical tensions for investors.
More Original Insights
In addition to a permanent staff in Beijing and Shanghai, a number of us based in Westport take regular trips to China. The goal is to deepen our understanding. In particular, we find getting out of the biggest cities provides useful perspective. Below are the notes from our most recent trip.
Our co-Chief Investment Officer outlines the value of a balanced portfolio allocation to China, and provides a template for how to invest in a manner designed to maximize benefit for institutional portfolios.
Monitoring and Navigating the Evolving US-China ConflictJune 27, 2019 |
Members of our investment research team discuss Bridgewater’s approach to understanding and systematically measuring the various dimensions of trade tension through new gauges and monitors, and translating that into potential impact on economies and markets.
Ray Dalio shares his thoughts on the evolving trade dispute between China and the US, and the fundamental differences in values and approaches that lie beneath the conflict.
Within a decade or so there is a high likelihood that the Chinese equity market will be on par with the US and European equity markets in terms of its size and importance to global investors. With this in mind, a top-down view of the Chinese equity market in relation to the US and Europe shows similarities in their fundamental drivers and important differences in how things are playing out.
Inclusion of China in Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate Bond Index Boosts Pressure on Investors to Figure Out How They Will Deal with the Opening of Chinese MarketsMarch 27, 2018 |
Most global investors have very small allocations to China that do not appropriately reflect the size and importance of the Chinese economy or its assets. We expect that will change significantly over the next few years, and we would encourage investors to think proactively about the exposure they want to China now.